
European grain markets were waiting on the August 12 WASDE, with MATIF wheat and maize firmer recently. France cut its soft wheat yield estimate sharply, forecasting a near 12 million tonne drop in domestic wheat output to 29.1 million tonnes, while Baltic wheat is seen down about 10%.
Russian yields are strong, though quality is reported as below average.
Sharp European wheat shortfalls tighten supply and support wheat prices, partly offset by a strong Russian crop and heavy US corn and soybean supplies.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.