Chinese slaughter pig prices rose 4% month on month to 22.44 RMB/kg by August 26, and cull sow prices climbed 6.3%. The NDRC will release state pork reserves from September, while drought, heat and power rationing in several provinces are hurting crops and feed supply.
Rising hog prices and herd rebuilding increase demand for feed grains and meal, but drought in China could cut corn and feed ingredient supply, supporting feed prices. Government reserve releases could cap the hog price rise.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 12 past bullish weather events, Lean Hogs moved a median +1.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.6% to +7.1%), and -3.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.