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Market commentary for January 29, 2024 notes that US PCE inflation eased for a third consecutive month to 2.6% while savings stayed historically low. The report also flags South American forecasts with dryness in South Brazil and Argentina and heat in Argentina next week, with rain needed mid-February.
Dry South American weather in key soybean and corn areas supports futures and raises export competition concerns for US supplies, while macro inflation trends shape the dollar.
blog.pricegroup.comDaniel FlynnJan 29, 2024After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 29 past weather events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.2%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
