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USSEC's webinar discussed USDA's August WASDE projecting a record 2022 US soybean crop of 4.53 billion bushels (123.3 MMT) and revised-up global supplies. Industry speakers also flagged risks including the Russia-Ukraine war, COVID, inflation and supply chain disruption.
A record US soybean crop and higher global supplies point to ample export availability, which is bearish for soybean prices.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.