
The Canadian dollar edged higher on Tuesday as oil prices rose, but gains were capped by rising global bond yields. The U.S. 10-year yield hit a 12-year high and Wall Street entered a bear market.
Oil was supported by supply curbs in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Ian, with U.S. crude settling 2.3% higher at $78.50.
Gulf of Mexico production curbs and hurricane risk can tighten energy supply and lift diesel and freight costs for feed mills. Rising yields and recession fears point to weaker demand for commodities overall.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.