
USDA's October WASDE showed higher 2022/23 corn ending stocks and lower soybean stocks than analysts expected. USDA cut corn export use by 125 million bushels to 2.15 billion and shifted 50 million bushels from ethanol to feed.
Soybean futures rallied on the report while corn showed mixed, slightly bearish trade.
Lower soybean stocks than expected tighten the old-crop balance and support soybean prices. The larger corn stocks and cut demand weigh on corn prices, which are only partly offset by the export reduction.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.