
DTN analyst Todd Hultman notes USDA estimates the lowest U.S. ending wheat stocks in 15 years and the lowest stocks-to-use ratio in nine years. He argues speculators are net short in KC and Chicago wheat, despite prices falling over the past three months.
Tight US ending stocks and heavy speculative shorts point to upside risk for wheat prices, which affects feed-grain cost comparisons.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.