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The Brazilian real traded near R$5.00 to the dollar after a large inflow of dollars in the first quarter. Foreign-currency inflows reached $12.5 billion between January and March, the largest for that period since 2012, mostly from commercial exporters.
A record trade surplus of $16.1 billion through March supported the currency.
Exporters converting dollar earnings into reais tend to slow sales of soybeans, corn and meal when the currency strengthens, which can tighten export supplies and support dollar prices. Analysts expect the upward bias to persist in the short term, although a sustained rally needs fiscal certainty.
valorinternational.globo.comVictor Rezende, Arthur CagliariApr 11, 2023After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 44 past bullish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (34% higher; middle half -1.9% to +0.9%), and -2.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
