
Food and beverage companies are preparing for cost increases and paperwork under the EU deforestation law adopted by Parliament. The regulation covers seven commodities with €85bn in trade, and five food commodities are in scope, with soy the largest at €14bn of EU imports in 2021.
Soy is the largest affected import at €14bn, so traceability and due diligence costs could slow or reroute EU soy purchases and soften soy and meal prices.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.