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The Council formally adopted the EU Deforestation Regulation on May 16, 2023, prohibiting sale of relevant commodities and products in or out of the EU unless verified as deforestation-free. Large companies get 18 months to comply and smaller ones 24 months, with fines of at least 4% of EU-wide annual turnover.
The compliance window gives trade time to adjust, but the fine structure and verification burden will raise costs for soy and palm oil supply chains into the EU. Near-term price effects are likely limited, with the bigger impact as the rules take effect.
globaltradeandsanctionslaw.comSteven Farmer, Iris Karaman, Sarah L. BrowneMay 23, 2023After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 400 past bearish policy events, PALMOIL moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
