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France, the EU's largest wheat producer, has had significant dryness in late winter and early spring, and the USDA FAS says more rain is needed for winter crops and for corn planting. The agency is concerned that the 2023-24 crop could face drought similar to the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons.
Groundwater levels were described as deteriorated after a very dry winter.
A drought-hit French crop would cut EU wheat exports and could support world wheat prices, while a possible corn shortfall would tighten feed-grain supplies. The risk is still a forecast, so the price effect depends on rainfall over coming weeks.
world-grain.comSusan ReidyMay 24, 2023After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
