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Meteorologist Drew Lerner argues that a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation combined with La Niña could push North America's drought eastward this summer while bringing wetter conditions to Canada and the northern Plains. The piece is a seasonal weather outlook rather than a new observed event.
A drought spreading into the central US Corn Belt would be a major upside risk for corn and soybean prices, though the forecast is speculative for now.
world-grain.comDrew LernerMar 24, 2022After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
