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USDA surprised wheat markets in its June WASDE by projecting larger supplies for the coming year despite U.S. crop damage. Traders had expected a smaller hard red winter crop after drought drove abandonment to its highest rate since 1917, but recent Plains rains improved late-season prospects.
USDA also cut Argentina's corn production potential below trade estimates and raised Brazil's.
Larger expected wheat supplies and better Plains prospects are bearish for wheat, reducing the cost of wheat-based feed. Argentina's smaller corn crop is a modest offset for corn.
farmprogress.comBen PotterJun 9, 2023After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
