
USDA cut its 2023/24 world cereal production forecast by 3.4 million tonnes and oats output by 800,000 tonnes to 22.5 million tonnes. Spain's severe drought is projected to cut winter cereal output sharply, and German summer cereal area fell.
A lower world oat crop and drought losses in Spain tighten global oat supplies, supporting oat and feed grain prices.
After 52 past bullish report events, Oats moved a median -2.0% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.4%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.