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An opinion piece in Nature India says the eastern Pacific shifted from La Niña to El Niño in June 2023 and that models expect it to strengthen through the northern winter. The authors argue El Niño's effect on the Indian monsoon and on agriculture is a growing concern.
A stronger El Niño could weaken the Indian monsoon, which would threaten rice, pulses and oilseed output and could support global rice prices. The article is analysis rather than new production data, so its direct market effect is limited.
nature.comDhara, Chirag, Koll, Roxy MathewJul 25, 2023After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
