Paris rapeseed futures closed at €463.75/t, down €2.50/t, following Malaysian palm oil weakness. Traders are awaiting Malaysian Palm Oil Board data, and Canadian rainfall shortfalls are bringing production potential into focus, with global rapeseed stocks-to-use forecast to rise to 7.5% for 2023/24.
Rising global rapeseed stocks point to ample supply that caps prices, but Canadian dryness is a risk that could tighten the balance if yields fall further.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 29 past bearish weather events, PALMOIL moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.6%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.