The October WASDE and Crop Production reports cut US soybean yield and production while ending stocks were unchanged at 220 million bushels. Corn yield and production were reduced, with corn ending stocks lower on smaller carry-in.
Wheat was judged bearish, and world soybean ending stocks were cut by 3.6 million tonnes.
Lower soybean and corn balance sheets support feed grain prices, while the bearish wheat read offers cheaper alternatives to corn in feed rations. Traders expect further yield cuts ahead.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.