
Chinese buyers purchased at least twelve cargoes of new-crop Brazilian soybeans from November 15 to 17, with premiums rising steadily over CME March futures. Brazilian farmers were slow to sell because of crop concerns, and CME soybean futures had fallen on wetter Brazilian weather.
Strong Chinese demand for Brazilian beans, combined with slow farmer selling, supports physical soybean premiums even as futures decline. Buyers will likely keep paying up for prompt Brazilian supply while crop uncertainty persists.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.