Wheat has lost more than 8% since the start of the year, pressured by very competitive offers from Russian and Ukrainian suppliers. Black Sea port prices are quoted between $170 and $220 per ton, and further declines could test support near $540 per bushel.
Aggressive Black Sea export pricing lowers the cost of wheat as a feed grain and pressures prices across global markets. Cheaper wheat can also substitute for corn in feed rations.
After 375 past bearish trade events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.