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Chicago wheat futures fell 4.7% for the week and are on track for an eighth straight weekly loss, the longest losing streak since 1997. The decline reflects easing supply fears and fading Black Sea disruption as peace talks progress and more Russian wheat moves via Baltic ports.
Global wheat production is also forecast near record levels, while US wheat export sales came in below expectations.
The unwinding of the war risk premium and ample global supply point to lower wheat prices, easing food inflation pressure for importers.
adalytica.comNov 1, 2026After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 16 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (13% higher; middle half -4.3% to -1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
