
Brazil's central bank cut its Selic rate by 25 basis points to 10.50% in a split decision, with all four directors appointed by President Lula dissenting in favor of a larger cut. Markets reacted with the real falling more than 1% against the dollar and longer-dated rate futures rising sharply.
Concern about politically driven easing weakens the real, which can lower Brazilian export prices for soy and corn and shift global feed trade flows toward Brazilian supply.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.