Germany anticipates swift resumption of grain exports via Black Sea

After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Feb 21, 2021Ukraine, Russia ink deal to export grain on Black Sea+0.7%
• Mar 14, 2022Russia gradually resuming wheat exports from Black Sea ports-1.8%
• Sep 25, 2026Russia can restart 80% of Black Sea grain export terminals if attacks stop | Reuters-2.9%
• Nov 17, 2022Black Sea grain export deal extended, but Russia wants more on fertiliser exports+1.0%
• May 17, 2023Black Sea deal extension sinks grain prices-1.4%

After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Feb 21, 2021Ukraine, Russia ink deal to export grain on Black Sea+1.6%
• Sep 25, 2026Russia can restart 80% of Black Sea grain export terminals if attacks stop | Reuters-0.3%
• Nov 17, 2022Black Sea grain export deal extended, but Russia wants more on fertiliser exports-1.7%
• May 17, 2023Black Sea deal extension sinks grain prices+2.4%
• Nov 22, 2022Black Sea grain corridor lives on-1.5%