According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentine soybean planting reached 33.8% of the planned 19 million hectares, up 21.7% from the prior week. Hot, dry weather in most producing areas sped sowing, while the west and south stayed too dry to plant and rain is expected in the northwest.
Fast planting and a larger expected area, about 7% above the prior record, point to ample future Argentine supply, which weighs on soybean prices. Dryness in the west and south is a risk that could limit that supply.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 55 past neutral weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.