EUR/USD forecast: Can ECB rate hike expectations and Lagarde’s exit halt the Euro’s decline?

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Nov 1, 2022ECB Rate Hike Expectations, Weaker Dollar Lift Euro | FXEmpire+1.1%
• May 23, 2022EUR/USD Soars as Lagarde Talks Up Hikes, Says ECB Will Exit Negative Rates in Q3 | Forex trading, free forex education | Forex.ca+1.4%
• Mar 30, 2022Euro rises vs dollar as eurozone inflation fans rate hike expectations | Money & Forex Markets - Business Standard-1.6%
• Jan 25, 2022Euro Forecasts Upgraded at Deutsche Bank, says ECB to Hike Rates in December-0.9%
• Sep 17, 2021Euro-Dollar Rate Heavy Despite Leaked ECB Inflation Forecasts-0.2%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Nov 1, 2022ECB Rate Hike Expectations, Weaker Dollar Lift Euro | FXEmpire-1.0%
• May 23, 2022EUR/USD Soars as Lagarde Talks Up Hikes, Says ECB Will Exit Negative Rates in Q3 | Forex trading, free forex education | Forex.ca-0.9%
• Mar 30, 2022Euro rises vs dollar as eurozone inflation fans rate hike expectations | Money & Forex Markets - Business Standard+0.1%
• Sep 17, 2021Euro-Dollar Rate Heavy Despite Leaked ECB Inflation Forecasts+0.2%
• Dec 14, 2023US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Rally Persists Following Fed and ECB-1.3%