Latest trade data shows US beef exports fell 8.2% year over year in March and 5.9% in the first quarter of 2024, following a 14.3% drop in 2023. Mexico was the only major market growing, up 11.7% in the first quarter, while Japan, South Korea and China/Hong Kong all declined.
Beef imports in March rose 10.6%.
Weaker US beef exports and rising imports soften domestic beef demand, which weighs on cattle prices. Mexico's growth offers some support for beef export demand.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.