US beef exports fell 3.6% in January to May 2019, with declines to Japan and Canada and a 41% drop to Hong Kong, while South Korea grew. Japan's exports are being hurt by the CPTPP tariff disadvantage the US faces because it is not a member.
Weaker US beef export demand adds supply pressure on domestic beef and cattle prices, with the CPTPP tariff gap a structural headwind for US meat in Japan.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.