U.S. natural gas falls 3% on rising output, milder forecasts as winter spread hits record low

After 104 past bearish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.

• Feb 28, 2025US natgas prices slide 3% to two-week low on record output, mild weather — TradingView News+10.8%
• Nov 27, 2023US natgas hits two-month low on ample output, mild weather - Markets - Business Recorder-2.4%
• Nov 3, 2020US natural gas futures fall on milder weather - Markets - Business Recorder-12.5%
• Feb 7, 2022U.S. natgas futures drop 6% on forecasts for less cold, rising output | Financial Post-19.2%
• Jan 21, 2025U.S. Natural Gas Futures Fall on Milder February Outlook - WSJ-40.6%

After 37 past weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (73% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +5.6% over 20.

• Feb 14, 2023IP Crop Network, February Report - U.S. Identity Preserved Alliance+1.2%
• Apr 14, 2021Cold dry spring starts to pressure nitrogen market - Farmers Weekly+1.5%
• Jan 5, 2024Fertilizer outlook provided  – Wyoming Livestock Roundup+1.6%
• Nov 7, 2024Cutting nitrogen pays off in oats — if it’s drier | The Western Producer+0.2%
• Dec 20, 2023Brazilian drought slows fertilizer purchases, affecting global suppliers — Fertilizer Daily+0.8%