US natural gas futures fell on a milder February outlook after spot prices surged during holiday-weekend cold. The Nymex front month was down 3.6% at $3.807/MMBtu.
Analysts said freeze-offs were smaller than feared, allowing physical prices to retreat.
Expected milder heating demand reduces near-term gas burn and pressures energy input costs for feed producers, such as those using gas-fired drying and processing. Lower gas prices can also weigh on ethanol-linked DDGS economics.
After 104 past bearish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Milder February outlook and smaller-than-feared freeze-offs cut heating demand expectations and eased physical prices, driving the front-month lower on the day.
A milder February outlook and smaller-than-feared freeze-offs let futures fall as the cold-driven premium faded.