
A severe Brazilian drought linked to El Niño is delaying fertilizer purchases by farmers ahead of the corn-planting season. Sales are being hit for Nutrien, Mosaic and Yara.
Mosaic projects a 12% drop in Brazil's safrinha corn output.
Lower Brazilian corn output and delayed fertilizer demand reduce global fertilizer sales while signaling tighter corn supplies, which tends to support corn prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 37 past weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (73% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +5.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.