
Brazil's drought, linked to El Niño, is causing farmers to delay fertilizer purchases for the upcoming corn-planting season. Brazil's soybean harvest is already late, which may push back planting of the main corn crop.
Mosaic expects Brazil's safrinha corn crop to fall about 12 percent, slightly more than the government's estimate.
A smaller safrinha corn crop tightens export supplies from the top corn exporter and supports corn prices. Weaker fertilizer demand also pressures fertilizer producers' sales and prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.