S&P Global estimates US corn output for 2022-23 at 13.94 billion bushels, 8% lower year on year, after drought. EU corn production is seen down more than 18% at 59.57 million mt, and the war in Ukraine could remove about 25 million mt from trade.
Brazil may deliver a record crop, but global corn exports have slowed on higher prices and weaker Chinese demand.
Multiple supply losses in the top exporters mean global corn stocks will stay tight, and prices will depend on Brazil's crop, supporting corn-based feed costs.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.