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A cold, dry spring has slowed nitrogen demand in the UK, and prices have slipped a few pounds per tonne over the past two weeks. Urea is around £302-312/t and UK-made ammonium nitrate about £275-280/t, while phosphate prices remain high.
Softer nitrogen prices reduce fertilizer costs for UK grain growers, though the weather-driven demand shortfall is limited to a short application window.
After 37 past weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (73% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +5.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.