◂ Event Timeline

Feb 7, 2022WEATHERUS

U.S. natgas futures drop 6% on forecasts for less cold, rising output

U.S. natural gas futures fell about 6% on Monday as output recovered from Winter Storm Landon and forecasts pointed to less cold and lower heating demand over the next two weeks. March NYMEX futures dropped to about $4.30 per mmBtu.

Landon had cut gas output by roughly 7.2 bcfd, far less than Winter Storm Uri in 2021.

WHY IT MATTERS

Faster production recovery and weaker heating demand loosen the gas balance, lowering natural gas prices. Cheaper gas reduces energy and fertilizer input costs for feed producers, though the direct effect on feed grain prices is limited.

AFFECTSNATGAS▼

SOURCE
financialpost.comReutersFeb 7, 2022

Price reaction & history

NATGAS▼bearishSO FAR1d -12.3%5d -19.2%20d -1.2%

After 104 past bearish weather events, NATGAS moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.

Nov 1, 2022U.S. natgas futures drop 10% on profit-taking, mild forecasts+0.3%
Jan 5, 2023U.S. natgas sinks nearly 11% to 1-year trough on low storage draw, warm weather forecasts | Financial Post-10.5%
Feb 25, 2022April Natural Gas Futures Debut with Thud on Warming Forecast, Returning Output+0.1%
Oct 15, 2021U.S. natgas falls near 5% on mild forecast, drop in global prices | Reuters-13.4%
Feb 11, 2022U.S. natgas futures slide to 3-week low on jump in output | BOE Report+13.4%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

NATGAS · GP ▸

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