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April natural gas futures fell on Friday, settling at $4.470 per MMBtu, as forecasts called for milder temperatures. Production was recovering from freeze-offs and LNG feed gas demand was weak.
Warmer weather and returning output reduce near-term heating demand and add supply, which pressures U.S. natural gas prices lower.
After 104 past bearish weather events, NATGAS moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.