
Natural gas prices slipped about 1% through trend-line support despite a larger-than-expected inventory draw. Storage fell 222 Bcf to 2,101 Bcf, versus expectations of a 211 Bcf decline, and sits 215 Bcf below the five-year average.
The NOAA forecast calls for warmer-than-normal weather across most of the U.S. for the next two weeks.
Warm forecasts reduce heating demand and keep prices under pressure despite tight storage. Lower gas prices reduce energy costs for feed producers, while the storage deficit limits how far prices can fall.
After 104 past bearish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.