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US natural gas futures fell nearly 5% on a milder weather forecast and lower global prices. Talk of a possible US export ban on diesel has also widened the discount of US crude futures to the global benchmark.
Milder weather reduces near-term heating demand and eases US gas prices, which lowers fertilizer and energy input costs. A diesel export ban would change US fuel supply and freight costs.
reuters.comOct 15, 2021After 104 past bearish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
After 50 past weather events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -4.8% to +5.7%), and +8.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
