Brent crude settled at $117.64 a barrel on Friday, up 2.4%, after touching $118, while WTI rose 2.1% to $104.12. Brent gained 13.6% in October and WTI climbed 15.2% amid attacks on Hormuz shipping and the US-Israel war with Iran.
Attacks on Hormuz shipping threaten crude supply, lifting energy costs that feed into biofuel demand, freight and fertilizer prices across feed markets.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.