
US beef production is declining in 2024 but less than expected, as cattle stayed longer in feedlots and gained weight. Cattle slaughter is down 4.4% year-to-date versus 2023, and dressed weights averaged 850 pounds, about 3% higher year over year.
Reduced slaughter and heavier carcasses tighten beef supply and support cattle prices, while packers' losses limit their willingness to raise kill rates.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.