USDA's January 1 Cattle Inventory report showed the US beef cow herd down 719,000 head from a year ago. Large declines were seen in South Dakota, Texas, Missouri and Montana, and the 2021 calf crop fell 1.2% to 35 million head.
A shrinking beef cow herd and smaller calf crop point to tighter beef and feeder supplies in coming years, which supports cattle prices. The report surprised slightly to the downside on breeding herd numbers.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.