
China made its first purchase of US soybeans for the 2024-25 marketing year, booking 132,000 metric tons per USDA, a far later start than the prior year. Chinese buyers have favored cheaper South American supplies, and Brazil's weaker real has encouraged faster exports.
Delayed Chinese buying and competition from cheaper Brazilian beans weigh on US soybean export demand and prices.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 16 past bullish trade events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.