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The July WASDE came in well off pre-report expectations, with 2024-25 U.S. corn ending stocks at 2.097 billion bushels versus a 2.272 billion trade average. U.S. all-wheat production was put at 2.008 billion bushels, above the trade range, and soybean ending stocks for both crop years came in below average expectations.
The corn and soybean stock misses are bullish relative to what the market had priced in, while the larger wheat crop adds supply pressure. Buyers should expect firmer corn and soymeal costs and weaker wheat as the market adjusts.
fcsamerica.comMatt Erickson Economic UpdatesJul 15, 2024After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
