
California spot renewable diesel (R99) cash prices hit record lows in August, reaching $2.35 a gallon at the Los Angeles pipeline head on August 6. Vessel deliveries to northern California were the second highest in Argus history, at about 741,000 barrels in August.
Changing credit eligibility under state incentive programs adds uncertainty to future import volumes.
Possible changes to California credit eligibility could cut renewable diesel imports and shift demand for soybean oil and canola oil feedstocks. Weak RD prices in the meantime pressure the diesel complex.
After 21 past bearish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -6.5% to +4.7%), and -1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.