
Electric vehicle sales in California keep growing, with ZEVs making up a large share of new vehicle sales. Meanwhile, renewable diesel is rapidly replacing petroleum diesel on the West Coast, and most US renewable diesel is consumed in California.
Shifting fuel demand toward renewable diesel raises demand for soybean oil and other fats while cutting petroleum diesel use, which weighs on diesel prices.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 21 past bearish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -6.5% to +4.7%), and -1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.