
The Trump administration plans to bring more diesel to market, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying emergency stock releases could reach nearly 3 million barrels per day. The US is not considering limiting diesel exports, and diesel has surged about 40% to $5.29 per gallon.
Planned supply releases could cap diesel gains, while ruling out export curbs keeps global supply flowing. Policy action on fuel affects freight and processing costs for feed.
After 21 past bearish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -6.5% to +4.7%), and -1.1% over 20.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.