
US soybean export sales for the new 2024/25 marketing year have fallen to levels not seen since 2008, excluding the 2019 trade war lows. CoBank analysts expect demand to recover, citing a possible smaller South American crop and EU deforestation rules starting December 30, 2024.
Weak early export pace is bearish near term, but a possible Brazilian shortfall and EU rules could lift US demand and support prices later in the season.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.