Argentine crushers are ramping up soybean meal production and exports as domestic supply is ample and prices strengthen. Soybean imports rose 41% year on year in June, and crusher inventories reached a record 4.11 million tonnes.
Estimated unsold farmer stocks were 29.2 million tonnes at the start of July, and July export registrations rose significantly from last year.
Higher Argentine meal exports and record crusher stocks add to global meal supply, which tends to weigh on soybean meal prices despite firmer domestic soybean prices.
After 384 past bearish trade events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 250 past neutral trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.