Rabobank's semiannual fertilizer outlook says the fertilizer affordability index is neutral for nitrogen and phosphorus and could drift negative later in 2024 as supply issues persist. Potash may see downward price movement, and Egyptian urea output halted in June over gas supply problems, lifting urea 17% in one month.
Tighter nitrogen and phosphorus supply and weaker affordability could squeeze farm margins and feed-crop profitability in late 2024.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.