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S&P Global projects Brazilian soybean meal output rising to 44.30 million mt in the marketing year ending Dec. 31, 2025, up 4.2% from 2023-24, on a 57.50 million mt crush.
Brazil's biodiesel blend is set to rise to 15% from March, and spot FOB meal prices are at lows with abundant supply expected to keep pressure on.
Larger Brazilian meal supply and Argentine competition point to weaker soybean meal export prices, which lowers feed ingredient costs for buyers. A US-China trade dispute could divert some demand toward Brazil, partly offsetting that pressure.
spglobal.comDec 17, 2024After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 81 past neutral trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
