
The suspension of Mexican live cattle imports followed the November 22 screwworm detection in southern Mexico. Mexico has historically supplied about 1.17 million head a year, roughly 3.3% of the US calf crop, with peak arrivals in spring and November/December.
The loss of seasonal peak feeder arrivals removes supply at a time when the US herd is already tight, supporting feeder and fed cattle prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.