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A Saxo Bank quarterly FX outlook argues that the Trump administration plans to use the dollar's dominance and tariffs as trade tools, and expects the first quarter of 2025 to be volatile. It warns that a strong dollar driven by tariffs could tighten financial conditions for emerging markets.
A sustained strong dollar tends to pressure dollar-denominated feed commodity prices and strain emerging-market feed importers' purchasing power. Tariff-driven volatility adds risk to trade flows.
home.saxoJohn J. HardyJan 15, 2025After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
